Understanding the Dynamics Behind the Nuclear Referendum in Kazakhstan

Abstract

Along the interest of understanding motivations behind non-constitutional referendums, Kazakhstan contributes to the debate with its latest nuclear referendum held in October 2024. The paper argues that the nuclear referendum in Kazakhstan reflects national factors echoed in country’s nuclear memory, and internal political dynamics, including governmental control over public opinion and security concerns. Despite official claims of transparency, comparison with the 2022 referendum and media reporting raises doubts about the vote’s credibility. Therefore, the qualitative research method required analyzing media coverage of nuclear referendum news including headlines from state owned and independent media sources of Kazakhstan. Thematic and framed analysis was done through Taguette software to identify recurring themes and discrepancies between official narratives and public discourse. The result of the analysis demonstrated that the government owned media strongly propagating on the benefits of NPP on the economic, social, and environmental development of the country, independent media significantly focused on opposing state narratives and bringing counter arguments in the pre-referendum public debate. Overall, the 2024 referendum illustrates how the government uses controlled participation to legitimize nuclear policy while limiting genuine democratic processes. The qualitative media analysis of state controlled and independent news agencies of Kazakhstan were evaluated to assess transparency and motivations behind the referendum.